India’s rising influence on global trade

March 24, 2025 Hot from the Oven Valli Sarvani

India is set to play a crucial role in international trade, contributing 6% to global trade growth over the next five years.

According to a joint report by DHL and the NYU Stern School of Business, only China (12%) and the US (10%) will surpass India’s contribution.

The DHL Trade Atlas 2025 predicts that India will maintain its third position in trade scale while making a significant leap in trade speed rankings.

The country is expected to climb 15 places to rank 17th as its annual trade growth rate increases from 5.2% to 7.2%.

In 2024, India ranked 13th in international trade, yet it recorded a 5.2% annual trade growth rate between 2019 and 2024.

In contrast, global trade expanded by only 2% during the same period. The report credits this rapid growth to strong economic performance and deeper integration into global trade networks.

The report underscores India’s emerging role as a global trade hub, bridging the eastern and western markets.

While optimistic about India’s trade growth, experts acknowledge potential risks due to global economic fluctuations.

Interestingly, the findings suggest that India’s trade intensity, including goods and services, exceeded China’s in 2023.

Although China is perceived as more trade-oriented, India’s goods trade-to-GDP ratio was nearly the same.

India’s rising trade prospects are backed by major foreign investments, particularly in manufacturing.

In 2023, India ranked second globally (after the US) in greenfield foreign direct investment (FDI). Manufacturing has become the primary sector attracting FDI, strengthening India’s industrial base.

Alongside India, other Asian economies like Vietnam, Indonesia, and the Philippines are projected to experience significant trade expansion.

Both South and Southeast Asia are expected to outperform other regions in global trade.

As supply chains continue to diversify, Asia is emerging as a dominant force in international commerce, reinforcing India’s position as a key player in the global economy.

Image from Pxhere (Free for commercial use / CC0 Public Domain)

Image Published on March 27, 2017