India-Armenia arms pact shifts regional power balance

India’s growing defence ties with Armenia reflect shifting strategic dynamics in South Asia and the South Caucasus.

Tensions continue to rise as India increases arms sales to Armenia, a move seen as a counter to the strengthening alliance between Turkey, Azerbaijan, and Pakistan.

This trilateral partnership has challenged India’s regional interests. During the recent India-Pakistan conflict, both Turkey and Azerbaijan openly supported Pakistan.

As a result, New Delhi’s defence ties with Yerevan have gained urgency and strategic depth.

India began increasing military support to Armenia in 2020. The shift came after Armenia expressed disappointment with Russia’s neutral stance during the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war.

Although Armenia and Russia are both members of the CSTO, Moscow did not provide military aid during the conflict. This pushed Yerevan to diversify its defence partners.

India has since stepped in. According to media reports, a second shipment of Akash-1S surface-to-air missiles is expected soon. The delivery comes under a 2022 defence treaty.

It also includes Pinaka multiple-launch rocket systems and howitzer guns. The first consignment was delivered in November last year.

India’s move is not just strategic but also political. According to Rajan Kochar from the Indic Researchers Forum, India’s ties with Turkey and Azerbaijan are already strained.

Hence, defence sales to Armenia are unlikely to damage relations further. Both Turkey and Azerbaijan had publicly backed Pakistan during Operation Sindoor.

Meanwhile, Russia’s influence over Armenia has weakened. Analysts say Armenia’s reluctance to support Russia in Ukraine created a rift between the two. This vacuum has allowed India to emerge as a key arms supplier to Armenia.

London-based analyst Chris Blackburn stated that India’s missile sales are a direct reaction to Turkish President Erdogan’s support for Pakistan.

These developments indicate a changing regional power balance, likely to increase tensions with Turkey and Azerbaijan.

In this shifting landscape, India’s growing presence in Armenia could shape future strategic equations in the region.

Image Credit: Aquintero82, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons

Image Reference: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Armenia_India_Locator.png